New Monitoring System to Prepare Low-Lying Louisiana Coast for Deadly Storm Surges

Earthquake-prone California and hurricane-stricken Florida have more of a reputation for disaster risks. But few people are aware of the disastrous scenario that would play out in coastal Louisiana if a strong hurricane were to make landfall there. Almost the entire coast of the state lies below sea level, making it vulnerable to storm surges--the great domes of deadly seawater pushed ahead of a hurricane.

Emergency planners worry that thousands of coastal residents would not evacuate in time to escape the surges, which could come with little warning. That's why a group of scientists from Louisiana State University (LSU) are installing a "Wave-Current Information System" (WAVCIS) off the coast. This state-of-the-art system is capable of measuring a number of factors affecting vulnerable coastal communities, including storm surge.

"It's a crapshoot without the information. Meteorologists cannot yet get accurate predictions of where the hurricane is going to go. But if a hurricane is coming toward Louisiana, we will have several days before projected landfall when we can very accurately predict flood scenarios. Then emergency planners can make evacuation decisions," said Dr. Gregory Stone, the professor at LSU who spearheaded the $4.5 million project, with support from FEMA, the Louisiana Department of Natural Resources, the Louisiana Oil Spill Office, the Louisiana Board of Regents, LSU, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

WAVCIS will fill a major void in the Louisiana storm warning system, which was practically non-existent when compared to those of other Gulf Coast states. A system of 20 "weather buoys" along the U.S. coastline has served as a warning system for the Gulf of Mexico. However, the buoys are not distributed evenly and Louisiana falls into one of the gaps.

From the mouth of the Mississippi River to the Louisiana-Texas border, there are no buoys. Just one buoy serves Louisiana, but it is located 62 miles to the east of the Mississippi River and more than 300 miles to the south. The other buoys are near the coastlines of Texas, Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida, or several hundred miles out into the Gulf. Scientists say Louisiana has been relatively lucky because recent storms have not hit the most populated area around New Orleans. But it is just a matter of time before the inevitable happens, they warn.

"With this new system, we get to see real information on storm surge and we can feed that into our models and come up with real data," said Mike Brown, assistant director the New Orleans emergency management office. Potentially, stations could be set up throughout the whole Gulf of Mexico and along the East Coast.

WAVCIS will provide Louisiana with the most sophisticated storm predictor of all Gulf Coast states. The older floating buoys ride up and down with the waves and often can't give accurate pictures of wave heights and storm surge. The new monitoring systems are fixed to offshore oil platforms and have sensors above and underwater measuring wave height, storm surge, wind speed, and direction. Information from each station--a total of 13--will be transmitted via cellular telephone to a satellite where it is relayed at a base station at LSU and then transmitted through the Internet to emergency planners.

The system will give emergency planners and relief agencies more notice than ever before to prepare for the deadly effects of hurricanes on the low-lying areas of Louisiana. Within 30 minutes to an hour after information is collected from the gulf monitoring stations, it will be available for officials to view. Using special computer models, emergency planners will be able to determine possible flood scenarios that could occur should the hurricane make landfall in Louisiana, and relief agencies will be able to mobilize resources targeted at the most affected communities before the hurricane even hits.

The advanced notice of a coming storm is particularly important in low-lying portions of Louisiana, where 70 percent of the population resides in the coastal zone. Researchers have found that if past hurricanes, such as Camille (August 1969), Andrew (August 1992), or Georges (September 1998), had followed slightly different paths, the entire city of New Orleans would have been placed under water by dangerous storm surges. "In our situation, you can't afford to have underestimates of the storm surge," Stone said.

Because of the threat, the American Red Cross doesn't even operate shelters in the vulnerable city during hurricanes above Category 2. Red Cross shelter criteria mandates that shelter buildings be strong enough to withstand hurricane-strength winds and that they run no risk of being isolated by floodwaters.

"In New Orleans, you never get above sea level, so you're always going to be isolated during a strong hurricane," said Kay Wilkins, director of emergency services for the southeast Louisiana chapter of the Red Cross. During a strong hurricane, the city would be inundated with water blocking all streets in and out for days and leaving people stranded without electricity or access to clean drinking water. Many also could die because the city has few buildings that could withstand hurricane-force winds above a Category 2, so moving to higher elevations would be just as dangerous as staying on low ground.

As a result, the entire city must be evacuated when threatened by a strong hurricane. The predicament has always worried emergency and disaster workers, who say there may not be enough time to remove everyone from harm's way--especially in a city like New Orleans where there are few main roads out of town. "All the arteries become clogged and it's a scenario that could perhaps be solved with a very early warning and early evacuation," Stone said. An advanced warning system could potentially save lives by giving officials more time to get people out of danger.

Despite Louisiana's vulnerability, developers have thrown caution to the wind and the state has grown more susceptible to hurricane damage in recent years. "Over the past 30 years since, the coastal region impacted by Camille has changed dramatically. Coastal erosion combined with soaring commercial and residential development in Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama have all combined to significantly increase the vulnerability of the area," Sandy Ward Eslinger, a social scientist with NOAA's Coastal Services Center in Charleston, South Carolina, said at a symposium marking the 30th anniversary of Camille late last year.

But WAVCIS also may help protect some of Louisiana's fragile environment, which is being threatened by development and population growth. The information provided by the new system will aid in oil spill response and will serve to create a database for wetlands restoration efforts. Restoring the wetlands is key to minimizing the effects of hurricanes because they act as a buffer, reducing storm surge and wind energy of hurricanes, Stone said.

Potentially, the new system could lead to more hasty evacuations, like the headline-grabbing one in Florida last summer. While the eye of Hurricane Floyd never hit the state's coast last year, Stone believes the massive evacuation was an appropriate response. "It's better to have that frustration than the loss of life. The potential loss of life in Louisiana could be catastrophic because there's just nowhere to go."